Contained Disruption

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Saudi Arabia contains the immediate damage to refineries, export terminals, and pipelines through redundancy, inventories, and emergency repairs. Brent remains elevated because Houthi strike capability is proven, but markets avoid pricing a sustained loss of Saudi export capacity.

What it moves

Consumer Services+0.2%
Industrials+0.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Oil prices▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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