• 

  45%+0.4%

  Diplomacy Gains Traction

  Qatar-mediated contacts produce a credible path back to negotiations after the recent missile incidents and the U.S. claim that Iranian exports have fallen to zero. Markets treat diplomacy as reducing the near-term probability of a Hormuz disruption, even if any sanctions relief remains conditional.

  Energy −1.3% · Consumer Services +0.8% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%

• 

  25%0.0%

  Sanctions Stay Tight

  Diplomatic channels remain open, but the U.S. does not reverse its enforcement campaign after saying Iranian exports have hit zero. Brent stabilizes or rebounds because the market separates negotiation headlines from near-term physical supply.

  Energy +0.6% · Consumer Services −0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.2%

• 

  20%−1.0%

  Talks Stall Again

  Negotiations fail to convert into a clear de-escalation deal, leaving missile activity and sanctions enforcement unresolved. Markets reprice a higher probability of another Gulf incident, though not a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

  Energy +2.0% · Consumer Services −1.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.4%

• 

  10%−2.0%

  Gulf Escalation Shock

  A direct military incident around the Gulf overwhelms the diplomacy narrative and forces markets to price the possibility of shipping disruption. This remains a lower-probability path because Qatar and other Gulf states have strong incentives to keep talks alive.

  Energy +3.9% · Consumer Services −3.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.0%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.