Possible scenario
Talks Stall Again
20%
−1.0%
Negotiations fail to convert into a clear de-escalation deal, leaving missile activity and sanctions enforcement unresolved. Markets reprice a higher probability of another Gulf incident, though not a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
What it moves
- Energy+2.0%
- Consumer Services−1.1%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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