Possible scenario
Gulf Escalation Shock
10%
−2.0%
A direct military incident around the Gulf overwhelms the diplomacy narrative and forces markets to price the possibility of shipping disruption. This remains a lower-probability path because Qatar and other Gulf states have strong incentives to keep talks alive.
What it moves
- Energy+3.9%
- Consumer Services−3.3%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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