Diplomatic De-Escalation

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

+1.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Regional intermediaries move quickly to prevent another war, and both sides signal they want to preserve the April cease-fire. The oil risk premium partially unwinds and risk sentiment improves.

What it moves

Energy−2.5%
Consumer Services+2.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?