Possible scenario
Severe Confrontation
10%
−4.7%
A direct attack on U.S. personnel or a major disruption to Gulf shipping pushes the crisis toward open conflict. Markets react with a sharp oil spike, flight-to-safety buying, wider credit spreads, and losses in travel and cyclical sectors.
What it moves
- Energy+8.1%
- Consumer Services−7.3%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.