Limited Gulf Escalation

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A new maritime or proxy incident raises the probability of direct U.S.-Iran confrontation but stops short of full war. Oil jumps further and risk assets weaken as investors price higher transport and energy costs.

What it moves

Energy+4.2%
Consumer Services−2.7%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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