Possible scenario
Wider Gulf Escalation
−1.8%
Iran-linked attacks intensify or trigger direct military responses, moving the market beyond Goldman’s base case. This would be treated as a material geopolitical escalation, pushing crude sharply higher and risk assets lower in the first trading sessions.
What it moves
- Energy+4.3%
- Consumer Services−3.5%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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