Contained Oil Disruption

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Iranian pressure on Gulf shipping persists, but flows through the Strait of Hormuz are not broadly halted. Markets price a durable risk premium as insurers, shipowners, and refiners assume roughly 1 million barrels per day of intermittent losses.

What it moves

Energy+1.9%
Consumer Services−1.0%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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