• 

  42%

  −0.6%

  Contained Maritime War

  The most likely path is continued low-grade warfare around the Strait of Hormuz without a full closure. Iran keeps pressure on tanker traffic, while the US Navy, Gulf states and insurers try to preserve limited flows through convoys and rerouting.

  Energy +1.7% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.7% · Industrials −0.5%

• 

  26%

  +0.3%

  Diplomacy Revives

  Washington and Tehran return to indirect talks through Oman, Qatar, or Switzerland after the latest oil rally threatens consumer economies. This path is plausible because the November 2 selloff showed markets are highly sensitive to even limited peace signals.

  Energy −1.4% · Industrials +0.7% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%

• 

  20%

  −2.6%

  Direct Military Escalation

  The war escalates if an Iranian strike kills crew members, damages a US-linked vessel, or threatens Gulf export terminals. A direct US-Iran clash would create a sharper oil shock and a broader risk-off move than the current tanker-war baseline.

  Energy +5.7% · Consumer Cyclicals −4.7% · Finance −2.8%

• 

  12%

  +0.4%

  Supply Shock Cushioned

  Major producers and consumers act to contain the price shock without resolving the war. Spare capacity, pipeline exports outside Hormuz, strategic reserves, and cargo rerouting limit the immediate risk premium.

  Energy −1.7% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.9% · Industrials +0.5%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.