Direct Military Escalation

its chance, of the story’s futures

−2.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The war escalates if an Iranian strike kills crew members, damages a US-linked vessel, or threatens Gulf export terminals. A direct US-Iran clash would create a sharper oil shock and a broader risk-off move than the current tanker-war baseline.

What it moves

Energy+5.7%
Consumer Cyclicals−4.7%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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