Contained Maritime War

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is continued low-grade warfare around the Strait of Hormuz without a full closure. Iran keeps pressure on tanker traffic, while the US Navy, Gulf states and insurers try to preserve limited flows through convoys and rerouting.

What it moves

Energy+1.7%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.7%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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