• 

  35%

  0.0%

  Grinding Government Advance

  The Yemeni Army and Saudi-backed forces sustain the Dawn of Yemen offensive and make incremental gains around approaches to Sanaa without triggering a decisive Houthi collapse. This is the base case because the campaign already shows high strike tempo, but the Houthis retain missile capacity and entrenched positions.

  Energy +0.3% · Industrials +0.1%

• 

  30%

  −0.4%

  Houthi Retaliation Expands

  The Houthis respond to the intensified offensive with missiles, drones, or Red Sea threats designed to raise costs for Riyadh and the internationally recognized Yemeni government. This scenario carries the largest immediate market sensitivity because attacks near Saudi energy, aviation, or shipping routes can affect oil and transport risk premia.

  Energy +1.0% · Consumer Services −0.7% · Industrials +0.4%

• 

  20%

  +0.2%

  Diplomatic Pause Emerges

  International pressure from Oman, the UN special envoy, and possibly Washington or Riyadh leads to limited de-escalation efforts. The Houthis have rejected talks recently, so a durable settlement is unlikely, but a tactical pause or prisoner-exchange channel is plausible if battlefield costs rise.

  Energy −0.3% · Consumer Services +0.2%

• 

  15%

  −0.1%

  Entrenched Stalemate

  Neither side achieves a decisive breakthrough, and the offensive turns into a protracted artillery, drone, and airstrike campaign. This outcome is less market-moving than direct attacks on Saudi assets but keeps regional security risk elevated.

  Consumer Services −0.1% · Energy +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.