• 

  45%

  −0.2%

  Limited Damage Contained

  Saudi authorities and Saudi Aramco report no major damage at Ras Tanura, with exports continuing after air defenses or impact containment limit the operational effect. This is the most likely path because Saudi air defenses, redundancy, and diplomatic incentives all favor de-escalation after the initial claim.

  Energy +1.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.3% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  25%

  +0.1%

  Ceasefire Diplomacy Advances

  The attack claim strengthens Saudi incentives to lock in an Iran-brokered ceasefire arrangement rather than widen the conflict. Tehran, Muscat, and Riyadh push the Houthis toward a pause that reduces immediate threats to Saudi energy infrastructure.

  Consumer Services +0.5% · Energy −0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%

• 

  20%

  −1.1%

  Sustained Houthi Campaign

  The Houthis use the Ras Tanura claim to signal that Saudi oil infrastructure remains vulnerable despite the Iran-brokered ceasefire offer. Riyadh increases air defenses around Ras Tanura, Yanbu, Abqaiq, and airports, while traders price a higher probability of repeated attacks.

  Energy +2.9% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.6% · Industrials −1.4%

• 

  10%

  −1.1%

  Saudi Retaliatory Escalation

  Saudi Arabia responds militarily against Houthi launch sites after judging the Ras Tanura strike claim as a direct threat to core energy infrastructure. The escalation remains most likely confined to Yemen, but it raises short-term risk of further missiles and Red Sea disruptions.

  Energy +2.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.2% · Consumer Services −1.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.