Limited Damage Contained

Saudi authorities and Saudi Aramco report no major damage at Ras Tanura, with exports continuing after air defenses or impact containment limit the operational effect. This is the most likely path because Saudi air defenses, redundancy, and diplomatic incentives all favor de-escalation after the initial claim.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.