• 

  

  44%

  −0.3%

  Contained Airport Disruption

  The most likely path is that the strike claim reflects either an intercepted missile or limited damage at King Khalid International Airport. Saudi air defenses remain active, flights are delayed or briefly suspended, and Riyadh avoids a broader immediate escalation.

  Consumer Services −0.5% · Energy +0.3% · Industrials +0.3%

• 

  

  24%

  −0.8%

  Saudi Retaliation

  Riyadh responds with airstrikes on Houthi missile infrastructure in Yemen, likely with US intelligence support and regional coordination. The retaliation is designed to restore deterrence while avoiding direct confrontation with Iran.

  Energy +2.3% · Consumer Services −1.6% · Industrials +1.4%

• 

  

  18%

  −0.2%

  Iran Attribution Escalates

  Saudi and US officials focus on Iranian involvement, consistent with recent intelligence claims that Tehran has provided Houthis targeting support. The immediate response is more likely diplomatic, intelligence-driven, and sanctions-related than a direct strike on Iran.

  Energy +0.9% · Industrials +0.6% · Consumer Services −0.4%

• 

  

  14%

  −0.5%

  Target Set Widens

  The attack claim is followed by signs that Houthis may try to expand beyond the airport toward energy, water, or logistics infrastructure. This is less likely than contained disruption, but it carries the largest immediate market sensitivity because Saudi energy assets are globally important.

  Energy +1.6% · Consumer Services −1.1% · Industrials +1.0%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.