• 

  35%

  −0.6%

  Persistent Supply Crunch

  The most likely path is that Hormuz flows remain severely impaired through late 2026, while strategic stock releases slow the inventory draw but do not replace lost Gulf exports. ADNOC’s nearly 1 billion barrel estimate reinforces market expectations that spare inventories are being exhausted before bypass capacity arrives in 2027.

  Energy +2.3% · Consumer Services −1.9% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.8%

• 

  30%

  +1.1%

  Coordinated Stabilization

  Major consumers and Gulf producers respond to the inventory shock with a larger coordinated release, temporary demand measures, and accelerated rerouting through Saudi, Emirati and Iraqi infrastructure. Oil prices remain elevated but the market begins to price a slower inventory draw.

  Consumer Services +2.0% · Energy −1.9% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.6%

• 

  20%

  −2.3%

  Gulf Security Escalation

  A new incident involving tankers, mines or missiles pushes the crisis from supply disruption into direct security escalation. Shipping insurers raise war-risk premiums, naval escorts expand, and traders price a higher probability of further losses before diplomatic containment.

  Energy +3.9% · Consumer Services −3.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −2.8%

• 

  15%

  −1.9%

  Demand Destruction Emerges

  High prices begin to curb demand faster than expected, especially in Asia and Europe, reducing the pace of inventory depletion. This path caps crude prices but worsens the macro growth outlook as fuel-intensive industries cut output and consumers retrench.

  Industrials −2.1% · Energy −1.9% · Non-Energy Materials −1.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.