• 

  40%

  −0.1%

  Managed Low-Volume Corridor

  ADNOC Gas continues moving LNG through the Strait of Hormuz, but only under tightly managed windows, naval monitoring, and elevated insurance costs. This is the most likely path because Iran has demonstrated capacity to disrupt shipping without fully closing the waterway, while the UAE has strong incentives to keep some exports moving.

  Energy +0.7% · Utilities −0.4% · Industrials −0.1%

• 

  25%

  +0.5%

  Partial Diplomatic Reopening

  Regional mediation produces a limited maritime deconfliction arrangement that allows LNG cargoes to recover before the broader Iran-Israel and US-Iran standoffs are resolved. This scenario is plausible because Iran can extract diplomatic leverage while still avoiding a full rupture with Gulf energy customers.

  Energy −1.1% · Utilities +1.0% · Industrials +0.6%

• 

  20%

  −2.1%

  Renewed Hormuz Escalation

  Iran or aligned forces increase pressure on Hormuz shipping, forcing another leg down in ADNOC Gas LNG flows. The probability is material because the timeline already includes claimed vessel strikes, zero LNG transits, and repeated Iranian efforts to use the strait as strategic leverage.

  Energy +3.3% · Industrials −2.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −2.0%

• 

  15%

  0.0%

  Structural Export Diversion

  ADNOC Gas and its customers adapt to persistently impaired Hormuz access through cargo swaps, deferrals, and replacement LNG purchases from outside the Gulf. This does not fully solve the physical export problem, but it reduces the risk of outright contract failure.

  Industrials −0.2% · Utilities −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.