Managed Low-Volume Corridor

ADNOC Gas continues moving LNG through the Strait of Hormuz, but only under tightly managed windows, naval monitoring, and elevated insurance costs. This is the most likely path because Iran has demonstrated capacity to disrupt shipping without fully closing the waterway, while the UAE has strong incentives to keep some exports moving.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.