• 

  40%

  −0.2%

  Contained Maritime Attack

  The most likely path is that the projectile strike is treated as another limited maritime-security incident rather than the start of a broader conflict. India, Oman and nearby naval forces tighten monitoring, but commercial traffic through the Arabian Sea and approaches to Hormuz continues.

  Energy +0.5% · Industrials +0.3% · Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  25%

  −0.2%

  India Leads Response

  India is likely to take a visible role because an Indian national was killed and New Delhi has previously deployed warships to protect commerce in the Arabian Sea. The response remains primarily naval and defensive unless attribution becomes clear and politically unavoidable.

  Industrials +0.5% · Energy +0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.3%

• 

  20%

  −0.6%

  Iran-Linked Escalation

  Given the earlier Hormuz drone and missile attacks, investigators may attribute the strike to an Iranian or Iran-aligned network. This would materially raise the perceived threat to energy transit, though a full closure of Hormuz remains unlikely in the immediate aftermath.

  Energy +1.9% · Industrials +1.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.8%

• 

  15%

  +0.1%

  Diplomatic De-Escalation

  A diplomatic and regulatory response could dominate if states want to prevent the fatality from triggering retaliation. The International Maritime Organization, Oman, India and maritime insurers would focus on advisories, routing and attribution standards.

  Consumer Services +0.2% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.1% · Energy −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.