• 

  40%

  +0.3%

  Talks Extend Process

  The most likely outcome is that the Nov 10-11 meetings produce a continuing diplomatic channel rather than a ceasefire. Medinsky’s role signals Moscow may be reviving the 2022-style negotiating format, but the battlefield and territorial gaps remain too large for a comprehensive deal.

  Industrials +0.2% · Energy −0.2% · Finance +0.1%

• 

  25%

  +0.4%

  Limited Humanitarian Deal

  The talks produce a concrete but narrow agreement, most plausibly on prisoners, bodies, deported civilians, or strikes near nuclear and energy infrastructure. This would build on the UAE’s prior mediation role without forcing either side to concede core territorial claims.

  Industrials +0.3% · Energy −0.3% · Utilities +0.2%

• 

  25%

  −0.6%

  Talks Break Down

  Negotiations could collapse quickly if Russia insists on recognition of occupied territory or Ukraine rejects limits on NATO and EU integration. Excluding Europeans also creates a channel for political backlash that could harden positions rather than soften them.

  Industrials −0.5% · Energy +0.4% · Technology −0.2%

• 

  10%

  +1.1%

  Ceasefire Framework

  A surprise breakthrough remains possible but unlikely because both sides would need to accept sequencing on territory, sanctions, security guarantees, and monitoring. If achieved, even a preliminary ceasefire framework would produce a stronger risk-on reaction than a humanitarian deal.

  Energy −1.2% · Industrials +0.9% · Finance +0.7%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.