Talks Break Down

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Negotiations could collapse quickly if Russia insists on recognition of occupied territory or Ukraine rejects limits on NATO and EU integration. Excluding Europeans also creates a channel for political backlash that could harden positions rather than soften them.

What it moves

Industrials−0.5%
Energy+0.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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