• 

  45%

  +0.2%

  Eisenkot Forms Government

  Gadi Eisenkot converts the 67-member recommendation bloc into a governing majority after President Isaac Herzog gives him the mandate. Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman, Benny Gantz and parts of the Arab parliamentary bloc accept an emergency framework focused on Gaza, hostages, the budget and institutional repair.

  Finance +0.2% · Consumer Services +0.1%

• 

  25%

  −0.3%

  Mandate Fight Continues

  Benjamin Netanyahu and right-wing partners attempt to slow or delegitimize the transfer of power despite Eisenkot’s apparent majority. The next stage turns on Herzog’s mandate decision, procedural disputes in the Knesset and whether Shas or United Torah Judaism keep negotiating with Likud.

  Energy +0.2% · Industrials +0.1% · Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  18%

  −0.2%

  Talks Collapse

  The 67-member endorsement proves easier to assemble than a functioning coalition agreement. Disputes over Arab-party participation, judicial policy, conscription, Gaza governance and the budget prevent Eisenkot from forming a durable government.

• 

  12%

  −0.3%

  Security Shock Intervenes

  A major security development in Gaza, Lebanon or Iran-linked theaters overtakes the coalition process. Because Eisenkot is a former IDF chief, the shock could either strengthen the case for an emergency government or freeze negotiations if parties prioritize immediate military decisions.

  Energy +0.7% · Consumer Services −0.1% · Industrials +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.