The decline in Netanyahu's standing follows claims that at least two regional powers warned Israel of the October 7 attacks. While those revelations caused initial blowback against the incumbent, current betting trends suggest the sitting Prime Minister's outlook has slightly improved in recent weeks from its lowest point.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Polymarket Gives Gadi Eizenkot 49% Win Probability in Israeli Election
Geopolitics6 days ago
The probabilities of Benjamin Netanyahu retaining power are falling as traders on prediction platforms shift their support toward a rival candidate. Bets on Polymarket now price Gadi Eizenkot at a 49% chance of becoming the next Prime Minister in the elections scheduled for October 27, while Netanyahu's win probability is estimated by market participants at 31%.
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