• 

  38%0.0%

  Iran Attribution Solidifies

  Israeli investigators conclude that Iranian intelligence-linked actors were the primary foreign driver of the election meddling effort, while Pakistan served at most as a routing or facilitation node. This is the most likely path because Iran already appears in the timeline through cyber intrusions, AI influence campaigns, and direct conflict with Israeli security services.

  Industrials +0.9% · Telecommunications −0.5% · Technology +0.2%

• 

  25%+0.2%

  Pakistan Nexus Complicates

  The investigation finds a meaningful Pakistan connection, but the evidence is more ambiguous than the Iran track. Islamabad denies state involvement and argues that Pakistani infrastructure, contractors, or intermediaries were exploited by foreign actors.

  Technology +0.5% · Consumer Services −0.2% · Finance +0.2%

• 

  22%−0.1%

  Domestic Case Dominates

  The foreign angle remains important but does not produce immediately conclusive public evidence. The investigation shifts toward Israeli political consultants, campaign aides, and domestic intermediaries suspected of knowingly amplifying foreign-linked content.

  Industrials +0.2% · Finance −0.2%

• 

  15%−0.8%

  Covert Escalation Cycle

  The probe becomes part of the broader Israel-Iran covert conflict, especially given the recent killing of a Revolutionary Guard spy chief and prior Iranian hacking activity. This path is less likely than a contained investigation, but it carries the largest short-term market impact if cyber or kinetic retaliation follows.

  Industrials +1.5% · Energy +1.4% · Technology −1.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.