Covert Escalation Cycle

The probe becomes part of the broader Israel-Iran covert conflict, especially given the recent killing of a Revolutionary Guard spy chief and prior Iranian hacking activity. This path is less likely than a contained investigation, but it carries the largest short-term market impact if cyber or kinetic retaliation follows.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.