• 

  40%+0.6%

  Broad Deal Advances

  Washington and Ottawa convert the current talks into a broad trade framework covering tariff relief, USMCA renewal language, and a Canadian-backed route to revive Keystone. This is the most likely path if both governments want a visible win after months of tariff pressure and Alberta unity politics.

  Energy +1.9% · Industrials +1.1% · Non-Energy Materials +0.9%

• 

  30%+0.2%

  Narrow Trade Truce

  The parties agree to de-escalate without resolving the hardest issues. Tariffs are paused or partially reduced, USMCA negotiations continue, and Keystone is treated as a parallel energy-security discussion rather than a completed bargain.

  Industrials +0.5% · Energy +0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%

• 

  20%−0.9%

  Negotiations Stall

  The gap between Trump’s claim and Ottawa’s actual position becomes the central obstacle. Canada refuses to present Keystone funding as a trade concession, leaving tariffs in place and weakening confidence in the USMCA review process.

  Consumer Cyclicals −1.5% · Industrials −1.2% · Non-Energy Materials −1.0%

• 

  10%−0.1%

  Pipeline Politics Intervene

  Even if the trade channel remains open, Keystone becomes politically harder for Ottawa to deliver. Provincial, Indigenous, environmental, or parliamentary challenges complicate any commitment that Carney might make to Trump.

  Energy −0.4% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.2% · Industrials −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.