• 

  37%+0.1%

  Toll Corridor Stabilizes

  Iran keeps leverage over the Strait of Hormuz but allows a more predictable paid-transit system after pressure from Oman, Qatar, China, and India. Oil flows remain well below pre-crisis levels, but market panic eases if shippers can price the toll and insurance costs.

  Energy +0.3%

• 

  25%+0.2%

  Convoys Reopen Traffic

  The United States, United Kingdom, France, and Gulf partners expand naval escort operations while keeping direct contact with Tehran through Oman. This outcome restores some shipper confidence but still leaves the region exposed to miscalculation.

  Energy −0.4% · Industrials +0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%

• 

  23%−2.9%

  Blockade Escalates Militarily

  Iran decides that controlled pressure is insufficient and further restricts traffic, or a naval incident triggers direct retaliation. This is the highest-risk path because energy markets would price not only lost crude supply but also physical danger to Gulf export infrastructure.

  Consumer Cyclicals −3.3% · Energy +3.1% · Industrials −2.8%

• 

  15%−0.1%

  Emergency Supply Rationing

  Major consuming countries try to contain the price shock through stock releases, refinery run cuts, and substitution toward non-Gulf barrels. This does not reopen Hormuz, but it can limit the immediate upward pressure on benchmark crude prices.

  Energy −1.3% · Non-Energy Materials −0.6% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.