Toll Corridor Stabilizes

37%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Iran keeps leverage over the Strait of Hormuz but allows a more predictable paid-transit system after pressure from Oman, Qatar, China, and India. Oil flows remain well below pre-crisis levels, but market panic eases if shippers can price the toll and insurance costs.

What it moves

Energy+0.3%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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