President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday morning from Palm Beach as the US prepares to restart bombing in Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported. The call came days after Trump met at the White House with US Central Command’s chief and other senior military commanders to review options for resuming major combat operations, and as Qatari mediators host talks in Doha with an Iranian delegation.
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Earlier Saturday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump had not yet made a decision on new strikes and that Washington remained open to a diplomatic resolution. “We can achieve military objectives if we seek to. He hasn’t made a decision,” Rubio said, adding that the US “would prefer to do it peacefully” while condemning Iranian threats against commercial shipping and regional energy infrastructure.
In Tehran, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei met Saturday with Armed Forces Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi, Army Commander Amir Hatami and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Ahmad Vahidi, ordering an “immediate and effective response, without geographical limitations” to any threat. Khamenei directed the military to expand its target bank to bring all material and non-material US and Israeli assets within reach, and Abdollahi warned that Iranian forces would strike preemptively if they confirmed signs of an impending attack.
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−8.0%
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−1.8%
Oct 30 close
Story, if it plays out
87%−7.5%
Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.
13%−12.8%
A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.
2%+4.3%
Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.
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Oct 30 close
Prediction markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by…
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
6%
12%