Emergency Supply Rationing

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Major consuming countries try to contain the price shock through stock releases, refinery run cuts, and substitution toward non-Gulf barrels. This does not reopen Hormuz, but it can limit the immediate upward pressure on benchmark crude prices.

What it moves

Energy−1.3%
Non-Energy Materials−0.6%
Oil prices▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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