• 

  42%−0.6%

  Contained Shipping Disruption

  The most likely path is that the Al Mayeda strike confirms a dangerous but still localized Gulf shipping campaign rather than an immediate closure of Hormuz. Qatar, Nakilat, insurers, and naval forces impose tighter routing and inspection measures while LNG cargoes continue with delays and higher war-risk premiums.

  Energy +1.4% · Industrials −0.7% · Consumer Services −0.4%

• 

  27%−0.3%

  Naval Deterrence Response

  The Al Mayeda strike prompts a visible maritime-security response by the US Fifth Fleet, Qatar, and allied navies. Markets focus on whether escorts deter further attacks or create a direct confrontation with IRGC units and affiliated militias.

  Energy +1.0% · Finance −0.9% · Consumer Services −0.7%

• 

  21%−2.6%

  Hormuz Energy Shock

  The strike on Al Mayeda becomes the first confirmed LNG-sector hit in a broader campaign that meaningfully disrupts Gulf exports. This scenario does not require a formal closure of Hormuz; a pause by charterers, insurers, or terminal operators would be enough to cause a sharp short-term energy-price reaction.

  Energy +5.3% · Consumer Services −4.3% · Industrials −3.8%

• 

  10%+0.9%

  Diplomatic De-escalation

  Regional diplomacy contains the fallout, with Oman or Qatar opening a channel to prevent attacks on LNG carriers from becoming a sustained campaign. Markets would treat this as a partial reversal of the geopolitical risk premium built after the record October attack wave.

  Energy −1.2% · Industrials +1.2% · Consumer Services +1.0%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.