Contained Shipping Disruption

The most likely path is that the Al Mayeda strike confirms a dangerous but still localized Gulf shipping campaign rather than an immediate closure of Hormuz. Qatar, Nakilat, insurers, and naval forces impose tighter routing and inspection measures while LNG cargoes continue with delays and higher war-risk premiums.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.