Possible scenario
Negotiations Stall
20%
−0.9%
The gap between Trump’s claim and Ottawa’s actual position becomes the central obstacle. Canada refuses to present Keystone funding as a trade concession, leaving tariffs in place and weakening confidence in the USMCA review process.
What it moves
- Consumer Cyclicals−1.5%
- Industrials−1.2%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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