Narrow Trade Truce

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The parties agree to de-escalate without resolving the hardest issues. Tariffs are paused or partially reduced, USMCA negotiations continue, and Keystone is treated as a parallel energy-security discussion rather than a completed bargain.

What it moves

Industrials+0.5%
Energy+0.5%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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