• 

  40%0.0%

  Aid Stabilizes Producers

  The most likely path is that the C$9B package cushions cash flow for Ontario auto-parts suppliers and Canadian steel producers without changing the underlying tariff structure. The policy buys time for firms such as Algoma Steel, Magna International, Linamar, and Martinrea while Canada continues negotiations with Washington.

  Non-Energy Materials +0.6% · Industrials +0.4% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%

• 

  30%+0.1%

  Negotiated Tariff Off-Ramp

  The funding package increases pressure on Washington and Ottawa to find a managed-trade compromise rather than maintain open-ended tariffs and retaliation. A partial quota, exemption, or phase-down agreement would be plausible if both governments want to limit damage to integrated North American supply chains.

  Non-Energy Materials +1.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.1% · Industrials +1.0%

• 

  20%−0.2%

  Tariff Fight Persists

  The C$9B package fails to move U.S. policy, and both sides continue to treat tariffs as leverage. Canada keeps retaliatory measures in place while companies adjust production, pricing, and sourcing plans around a longer trade dispute.

  Non-Energy Materials −1.9% · Industrials −1.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.3%

• 

  10%−0.1%

  Program Strains Emerge

  The relief package becomes politically and operationally difficult as governments debate eligibility, burden-sharing, and whether support should protect jobs or finance restructuring. This path would leave investors skeptical that public funds can offset the scale of tariff damage.

  Non-Energy Materials −1.2% · Industrials −1.0% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.8%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.