Carney Expects Canada to Stay in Trump’s Crosshairs After Midterms, Won’t Rush Trade Deal | Tilt

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Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day?56%down 6 points
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?Oct 314%down 4 pointsNov 3025%down 1 pointDec 3134%down 5 points
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?32%down 4 points
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs?2%down 1 point
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela?4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal?0%

Carney Expects Canada to Stay in Trump's Crosshairs After Midterms, Won't Rush Trade Deal

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Ahead: this story’s futures

Carney Expects Canada to Stay in Trump’s Crosshairs After Midterms, Won’t Rush Trade Deal

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will not rush into a US trade agreement unless the terms serve Canada’s interests, warning that he expects his country to remain in President Donald Trump’s crosshairs even after the Nov 3 US midterm elections. Asked in a Politico interview about Washington “poking the bear,” Carney replied, “I think Canada’s the bear. I think Canadians are tired of it,” while saying his government is prepared to wait for a new US president if necessary rather than lock in an unfavorable pact. By Sunday, Carney also pointed to the “outlines” of a potential agreement, with negotiating teams working in the coming weeks.

If this story plays out

−0.2%Impact on the S&P 500 across 4 scenarios (−2.0% to +1.2%)

Scenarios

45%Prolonged Tariff Standoff−0.4%
25%Narrow Sector Carve-Outs+0.4%

If this story plays out

Scenarios

Story, if it plays out

4 ways this could read

Possible futures, not reported news · chances and moves from Tilt’s model

45%−0.4%
Prolonged Tariff Standoff
Canada and the U.S. remain locked in a high-tariff stalemate after the U.S. midterms, with Carney calculating that rushing into a weak deal would be worse than waiting. Trump continues to use Canada as a political target, but neither side immediately adds a major new tariff package.
Industrials −0.6% · Non-Energy Materials −0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.4%
25%+0.4%
Narrow Sector Carve-Outs
Trump and Carney avoid a full trade settlement but agree to targeted exemptions for sectors where U.S. businesses face visible cost increases. This is politically easier than a comprehensive deal and would reduce immediate pressure on integrated North American industries.
Industrials +0.6% · Non-Energy Materials +0.6% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
20%−1.2%
Post-Midterm Escalation
Trump interprets the midterms as validation of a confrontational trade stance and increases pressure on Canada. Carney responds with targeted retaliation, raising the risk of a broader North American trade shock.
Industrials −1.7% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.5% · Non-Energy Materials −1.5%
10%+0.8%
Comprehensive Trade Deal
Despite public toughness, both leaders decide that tariff pain is becoming too costly for businesses and consumers. A broader agreement would likely come through an accelerated USMCA framework or phased tariff rollback rather than an immediate full treaty rewrite.
Industrials +1.2% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.0% · Non-Energy Materials +0.9%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.

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