Possible scenario
Post-Midterm Escalation
20%
−1.2%
Trump interprets the midterms as validation of a confrontational trade stance and increases pressure on Canada. Carney responds with targeted retaliation, raising the risk of a broader North American trade shock.
What it moves
- Industrials−1.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals−1.5%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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