Prolonged Tariff Standoff

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Canada and the U.S. remain locked in a high-tariff stalemate after the U.S. midterms, with Carney calculating that rushing into a weak deal would be worse than waiting. Trump continues to use Canada as a political target, but neither side immediately adds a major new tariff package.

What it moves

Industrials−0.6%
Non-Energy Materials−0.5%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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