• 

  42%

  +0.1%

  Eisenkot Forms Minority Government

  President Isaac Herzog gives Gadi Eisenkot the first mandate after Ra’am, The Democrats and most anti-Netanyahu factions line up behind him. The most likely path is a narrow coalition or minority government relying on outside Arab-party support, because the bloc can agree on replacing Netanyahu more easily than on a full ideological program.

  Technology +0.2% · Finance +0.1%

• 

  24%

  −0.2%

  Coalition Talks Deadlock

  Eisenkot receives the mandate but negotiations stall over portfolios, Arab-party influence, judicial policy and security red lines. This outcome keeps Netanyahu as caretaker for longer and raises the risk of another election without immediately producing a governing alternative.

  Finance −0.1% · Industrials +0.1%

• 

  19%

  +0.3%

  Broader Unity Arrangement

  To avoid dependence on Ra’am and The Democrats alone, Eisenkot or Herzog pushes for a broader arrangement including Haredi factions, Likud defectors or a temporary unity formula. This is less likely than a narrow anti-Netanyahu government, but it would be more reassuring to markets because it creates a larger parliamentary cushion.

  Finance +0.4% · Technology +0.3%

• 

  15%

  −0.2%

  Netanyahu Bloc Revives

  Eisenkot’s talks fail and Benjamin Netanyahu regains the initiative by holding Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism together. This is not the base case after Ra’am and the opposition bloc back Eisenkot, but Netanyahu’s experience and discipline inside the right-religious bloc keep the path viable.

  Industrials +0.3% · Finance −0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.