• 

  38%+0.2%

  Jewish-Party Eisenkot Majority

  Lieberman’s recommendation gives Gadi Eisenkot a credible path to a non-Netanyahu government that can claim a Jewish-party majority. The key hurdle is reconciling Yisrael Beiteinu’s secular agenda with United Torah Judaism’s demands on budgets, education, and conscription.

  Energy −0.1%

• 

  25%−0.2%

  Coalition Deadlock Persists

  Lieberman’s recommendation improves Eisenkot’s numbers but does not guarantee signed coalition agreements. Netanyahu can still prevent defections, exploit religious-secular disagreements, and push the system toward another mandate round or election.

  Energy +0.1%

• 

  24%0.0%

  Arab-Tolerated Eisenkot Government

  If Jewish-party negotiations fall short, Eisenkot can still try to pass an investiture vote with Arab-party support or abstentions under the conditions already signaled. This path is arithmetically plausible but politically fragile because Lieberman and right-leaning partners would face attacks from Netanyahu’s bloc.

• 

  13%+0.2%

  Likud Unity Pivot

  A smaller but plausible path is a Likud leadership or unity-government shift once Netanyahu’s route to 61 remains blocked. Eisenkot has rejected a Netanyahu-led unity cabinet, so this scenario likely requires either a Likud internal move or a tightly defined rotation formula.

  Finance +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.