Possible scenario
Hung Knesset
15% Chance
Neither Eizenkot nor Netanyahu can assemble a governing majority, reflecting Israel's fragmented party system and the narrowness of the Polymarket pricing. This extends caretaker politics and delays decisions on Gaza, budgets, and judicial reform.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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