Possible scenario
Eizenkot-Led Government
49% Chance
Polymarket's 49% pricing proves broadly right as Gadi Eizenkot converts his anti-Netanyahu momentum into a governing mandate. His military record, break with the 2024 war cabinet, and centrist positioning allow him to unify much of the anti-Netanyahu camp.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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