Possible scenario
Netanyahu Bloc Survives
28% Chance
Benjamin Netanyahu and the right-religious bloc outperform prediction-market expectations, helped by turnout, security messaging, and fragmentation among opposition parties. This keeps judicial and coalition-risk premia alive and reduces the odds of a sharp policy reset.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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