Investors have boosted bullish bets on US gasoline to some of the highest levels since before the pandemic on expectations that export controls would reduce gasoline output and raise prices. Trump has said a ban "can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars." Talk of a ban has sent European gasoil higher and US diesel lower, though commodity analyst Rory Johnston said the oil market is signaling a chance of restrictions rather than a full ban. As long as a ban remains possible, refiners have an incentive to prioritize export markets to get ahead of a restriction.
Brussels is concerned by the ban talk and in ongoing contact with the US administration. The EU will assess the diesel situation at a Sept. 29 meeting. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan said diesel export controls would do little to bring prices down and would send the market a chilling signal. Investor John Arnold said even public consideration of a ban undermines confidence in the US as a secure and trusted energy exporter that allies can rely on.