Possible scenario
Limited Export Controls
30% Chance
The administration adopts a narrower version of the diesel export ban, using licensing, quotas, or allied exemptions to protect U.S. inventories while limiting damage to Europe. This still disrupts trading flows and supports European diesel cracks, but the shock is contained by carve-outs and strategic stock readiness.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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