Possible scenario
Ban Option Shelved
38% Chance
The Trump administration keeps the diesel export ban as leverage but does not implement it after warnings from European officials, TotalEnergies, and U.S. refiners. Markets price a reduced probability of a near-term Atlantic Basin diesel shortage, though inventories remain tight because Russia's ban is still in place.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- VLO+2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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