• 

  35%+0.1%

  Truce Mostly Holds

  Ukraine’s warning prompts tighter observation of Russian movements, but Moscow does not convert the humanitarian pause into a major attack. Demining and evacuation convoys continue under local military coordination, with sporadic accusations but no decisive battlefield shift.

• 

  30%−0.5%

  Limited Russian Probe

  Russian forces use the lull to improve positions or conduct small-unit probes around Oleshky rather than launch a full offensive. Ukraine responds with artillery, drones, and public evidence of truce violations, likely suspending parts of the evacuation corridor.

  Industrials +0.5%

• 

  20%−1.2%

  Broader Offensive Begins

  Russia uses the truce period to reposition forces and then launches a larger attack from the Oleshky area toward Ukrainian bridgehead positions and Kherson-facing routes. This would mark a material escalation on the lower Dnipro front, drawing urgent Ukrainian requests for artillery, drones, and air defense.

  Industrials +1.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.6% · Non-Energy Materials −0.2%

• 

  15%+0.4%

  Monitoring Deal Expands

  Ukraine’s public warning increases pressure on Russia to accept a more formal monitoring setup rather than risk blame for a truce collapse. A limited diplomatic mechanism does not resolve the front line, but it reduces the immediate likelihood of an offensive through the humanitarian corridor.

  Industrials −0.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.