• 

  38%+0.1%

  Eisenkot Coalition Advances

  President Isaac Herzog gives Gadi Eisenkot the first mandate, and Eisenkot focuses on a non-Netanyahu coalition built around centrist and anti-Likud parties. This is the most likely path because Netanyahu’s 53-seat bloc is short of a majority and Eisenkot has explicitly ruled out a unity deal with him.

  Technology +0.1% · Finance +0.1%

• 

  30%−0.2%

  Mandate Stalemate Persists

  Neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu can assemble 61 seats, extending Israel’s political deadlock. This is plausible because Netanyahu’s bloc is eight seats short and Eisenkot’s anti-Netanyahu majority likely depends on ideologically mismatched parties.

  Finance −0.2% · Technology −0.1%

• 

  22%−0.2%

  Netanyahu Finds Majority

  Netanyahu overcomes the 53-seat shortfall by drawing defectors, small right-wing factions, or independents into a narrow coalition. This is less likely than an Eisenkot mandate succeeding or a stalemate, but Netanyahu’s long record of coalition maneuvering keeps the path viable.

  Industrials +0.3% · Finance −0.3% · Technology −0.2%

• 

  10%−0.2%

  Security Cabinet Compromise

  A security flare-up or diplomatic deadline leads parties to cooperate on defense and emergency legislation without forming a full Netanyahu-Eisenkot unity government. This path is less likely but credible given Israel’s wartime political backdrop and Eisenkot’s prior role in the war cabinet.

  Industrials +0.6% · Consumer Services −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.