Limited Russian Probe

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Russian forces use the lull to improve positions or conduct small-unit probes around Oleshky rather than launch a full offensive. Ukraine responds with artillery, drones, and public evidence of truce violations, likely suspending parts of the evacuation corridor.

What it moves

Industrials+0.5%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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